The concept of technological singularity, where AI surpasses human control and rapidly transforms society, is a topic of great interest in the field of artificial intelligence. While it can be challenging to predict when and how singularity will occur, some AI researchers are searching for signs of its approach by measuring AI progress in relation to human skills.
One metric that has been identified is an AI’s ability to translate speech with human-level accuracy. Language translation is considered one of the most difficult challenges for AI, and if an AI system can match human-level accuracy in translation, it could be a sign of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and an indication that technological singularity is on the horizon.
Translated, a Rome-based translation company, has been tracking its AI’s performance since 2014 using a metric called “Time to Edit” (TTE), which measures the time it takes for human editors to correct AI-generated translations compared to human translations. Over the eight-year period and analyzing over 2 billion post-edits, Translated’s AI has shown a steady improvement, slowly closing the gap towards human-level translation quality. This suggests that the possibility of technological singularity may not be far off.
In addition to measuring progress towards technological singularity through language translation, there are other ways to gauge AI’s capabilities and potential for surpassing human intelligence. One such method is to track the progress of AI in various domains such as image recognition, natural language processing, and decision-making. As AI systems continue to improve in these areas, they will increasingly be able to perform tasks that were once thought to be the exclusive domain of humans, indicating that technological singularity may be on the horizon.
Another way to approach the prediction of technological singularity is by analyzing the rate of progress in AI research and development. As the field of AI continues to advance at a rapid pace, with new breakthroughs and discoveries happening regularly, it is possible to estimate the point at which AI will surpass human intelligence by looking at trends in the rate of progress.
Despite the difficulty in predicting when and how technological singularity will occur, it is clear that AI is rapidly advancing and has the potential to bring about significant changes to society. It is important for researchers and experts to continue monitoring progress in the field and to consider the potential consequences of technological singularity, both positive and negative, in order to prepare for the future.